Business Outlook Survey Q1 2024

Local business leaders less optimistic on national economy; Inflation pressure subsiding

Beginning in 2023 Q3 Quarterly Market Report, the Chamber began a survey of local businesses to gauge the state of the Quad Cities economy. This survey is similar to surveys conducted by groups around the country, in that it asks some basic questions about the respondent’s assessment of economic activity, wages, hiring, capital expenditures and a few other indicators. The options for each question are “increasing,” “decreasing” or “no change.” A “diffusion index” is calculated for each question, which is simply the difference in percentage points between “increasing” and “decreasing.” This diffusion index captures the degree to which respondents as a group feel that a certain aspect of the business climate is changing in one direction or the other.

The responses this quarter are a representative mix of companies from the region with 18% manufacturing, 22% retail, 43% service providers and 16% other. (Here, and in some lines of the tables, percentages do not total 100 due to rounding.)

This survey will be a regular feature in the Quarterly Market Report, and we invite our members and other local businesses to watch for the survey invitation next quarter.

As the difference in responses between manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies was not significant, the only the overall results will be reported this quarter.


Last quarter

Looking back at the last quarter, more respondents felt that economic activity in the U.S. has been decreasing. This is a sharp change from our last survey. Respondents were evenly split on the question of whether economic activity had increased for their own company. Again, this is a significant change from last quarter.

As in the last quarter, most respondents report little change in the number of full or part-time employees and hours worked.

The diffusion index for wages and benefits decreased as fewer respondents reported an increase. However, the diffusion index for the company's own prices remained about the same. A higher percentage of respondents reported an increase in capital expenditures last quarter.


Looking ahead

The view looking forward is a little cloudy compared to last quarter with a significantly negative (-30) diffusion index for U.S. economic activity signalling a much greater degree of pessimism about the national economy. The diffusion index was still positive for their own company's economic activity, though reduced compared to last quarter. Most report the number of employees is expected to remain unchanged.

There is some good news on the inflation front, however, as some respondents reported an expectation that the prices of goods or services they sell could decrease. None reported an expected decrease last quarter.


Special focus:

The special focus question this quarter was to respond to the statement "Obtaining financing is difficult because of high interest rates" (5 point scale).

Slightly less than half of respondents (47%) reported "neither agree nor disagree." Of the 53% who had an opinion, the vast majority of them expressed some form of agreement.

This has been a regular theme in our Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators blog. Tight monetary policy is now beginning to have a significant contractionary effect on the local economy, perhaps even more so than nationally. Even so, the fundamentals of the national and local economy remain strong. Lower interest rates would have an immediate impact on both current activity and expectations.

Bill Polley
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Bill Polley
Senior Director, Business Intelligence - Grow Quad Cities
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