Business Outlook Survey Q2 2024

Survey shows decline in local economic activity

Beginning in 2023 Q3 Quarterly Market Report, the Chamber began a survey of local businesses to gauge the state of the Quad Cities economy. This survey is similar to surveys conducted by groups around the country, in that it asks some basic questions about the respondent’s assessment of economic activity, wages, hiring, capital expenditures and a few other indicators. The options for each question are “increasing,” “decreasing” or “no change.” A “diffusion index” is calculated for each question, which is simply the difference in percentage points between “increasing” and “decreasing.” This diffusion index captures the degree to which respondents as a group feel that a certain aspect of the business climate is changing in one direction or the other.

The responses this quarter are a representative mix of companies from the region with 19% manufacturing, 28% retail, 39% service providers and 14% other. (In some lines of the tables, percentages do not total 100 due to rounding.)

This survey will be a regular feature in the Quarterly Market Report, and we invite our members and other local businesses to watch for the survey invitation next quarter.

As the difference in responses between manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies was not significant, only the overall results will be reported this quarter.


Last quarter

Looking back at the last quarter, more respondents felt that economic activity had decreased in the U.S. and for their own business.

The diffusion index was negative for the questions on the number of employees and hours worked, reflecting the decline in payroll jobs seen in the data. Upward pressure on wages continued to be felt, and there was a slight decrease in the diffusion index for prices and capital expenditures compared to last quarter's survey.


Looking ahead

The view looking forward is very similar to the view looking back on the last quarter. There was very little change in most of the diffusion indexes. One exception is in the expectation of wages and benefits for which the diffusion index decreased from 35 to 29, indicating diminished upward pressure on wages. However, the diffusion index for prices increased from 49 to 60, which is not good news for inflation.


Special focus

The special focus question this quarter was to respond to the statement "I am concerned about the availability of qualified workers for my business" (5 point scale).

A majority of respondents answered "strongly agree" or "agree" with 39% answering "strongly agree" and 35% answering "agree. Only 16% of respondents were neutral, and 10% answered "disagree."

Workforce development is a focus of the Quad Cities Chamber, and we offer a number of programs to develop the regional talent pipeline. This is a nationwide issue as firms cope with the rapidly evolving labor market.

Bill Polley
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Bill Polley
Senior Director, Business Intelligence - Grow Quad Cities
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