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When asked about their expectations for U.S. economic activity over the next six months, there was very little difference in the responses, with the exception of their company's business activity. There was a sizeable shift from the 38% who felt that their own company's business activity had increased in the last quarter to 61% who believe it will increase in the next six months.

Even so, the diffusion indexes looking ahead were less optimistic across the board when looking at the overall responses. There was, however, one significant difference between the manufacturers' responses and those of non-manufacturers. Manufacturers are more confident about U.S. business activity in the next six months with over 40% expecting an increase in activity. Responses from manufacturers tended to be more positive (more answering increasing to most questions and fewer answering increasing on the price question) overall, although the difference was only statistically significant for the question on U.S. business activity.

This quarter's special questions dealt with the impact of inflation on businesses in the Quad Cities region. The first question asked respondents to indicate their level of agreement with the statement: "My business is experiencing more pressure from rising prices than it was six months ago." A solid majority answered either strongly agree (52%) or agree (35%).

The next question asked respondents to fill in the blank in this sentence: "Compared to the level of inflation right now, I expect inflation six months from now to be ___________."

There was some variation in responses to this question. More respondents answered that they expect either slightly higher or significantly higher inflation, but the margin was not overwhelming.

The last question asked, "What prices are causing the most inflation concern for your business today?" The two most common answers were raw materials and supplies (39%) and gasoline and diesel fuels (26%). Raw materials and supplies was the top answer for manufacturers and gasoline/diesel was the top answer for non-manufacturers.

Beginning with the 2023 Q3 Quarterly Market Report, the Chamber has conducted a survey of local businesses to gauge the state of the Quad Cities economy. This survey is similar to surveys conducted by groups around the country, in that it asks some basic questions about the respondent’s assessment of economic activity, wages, hiring, capital expenditures and a few other indicators. The options for each question are “increasing,” “decreasing” or “no change.” A “diffusion index” is calculated for each question, which is simply the difference in percentage points between “increasing” and “decreasing.” This diffusion index captures the degree to which respondents as a group feel that a certain aspect of the business climate is changing in one direction or the other.

The responses this quarter are a representative mix of companies from the region with 33% manufacturing, 10% retail, 47% service providers and 10% other. (In some lines of the tables, percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.)

This survey is a regular feature of the Quarterly Market Report, and we invite our members and other local businesses to watch for the survey invitation next quarter.

As the difference in most responses between manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies was not significant, the tables focus on the overall results.