Total nonfarm employment in the Quad Cities metro area decreased by approximately 2,800 jobs from March 2023 to March 2024 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The first quarter ended with 179,500 jobs.

At the end of the quarter, the unemployment rate in both the four-county metro area and the Chamber's six-county service area stood at 4.6%, up from 3.9% at the end of December. In the six-county area, unemployment rates ranged from 3.3% in Muscatine County to 6.0% in Mercer County. Even though the number of jobs has declined recently, the unemployment rate remains well below the average of the last 15 years.

For perspective, the 12-month job decline experienced over the past year is less than half of what tends to occur during a typical recession. While this job decline bears watching, it may be a temporary phenomenon brought on by the tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. When interest rates began rising two years ago, many speculated that a recession could result. As of now, that has not occurred at the national level. However, because the Quad Cities area is relatively concentrated in interest rate sensitive industries such as manufacturing, the slowdown may be more significant here than nationally.

If, as is generally believed, the national economy can avoid recession and interest rates begin decreasing this fall, the Quad Cities labor market should also rebound. Even so, the local economy could briefly experience a decline in activity that is more significant than other parts of the country. Moderation of monetary policy in the form of lower interest rates are now needed to avoid further job losses.

Once interest rates begin to decline, the boost in consumer and business spending will increase the demand for labor, especially in manufacturing. Ideally, if the timing of interest rates is soon enough (as expected by September), the job numbers could rebound next year. In the event that rates stay higher beyond September, then job losses could take longer to reverse.