Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators
The Headlines:
The U.S. trade deficit increased slightly in February from $54.7 billion to $57.3 billion (seasonally adjusted) according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The trade deficits for both January and February are well below the average monthly deficit for each of the last two years.
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that seasonally unadjusted exports for the Chicago district (which includes the Quad Cities) for the first two months of 2026 were about $14.4 billion—which was 19% higher than for the same period last year and 16% higher than the same period in 2024.
The Details:
The exports from ports in the Chicago district contain some encouraging data for the agricultural sector. Exports of cereal grains (including corn, oats, and wheat) in the 4th quarter of 2025 were three times the value from the same period in 2024. The Chicago district was not alone in seeing a significant increase. Cereal exports were up nearly 30% nationwide during that period, and the pattern continues into the first two months of 2026.
Exports of oil seeds (including soybeans) from Chicago district ports in the first two months of 2026 were nearly double the amount for the same period last year.
Exports in the category including heavy machinery for January and February in the Chicago district were little changed compared to the same period last year, down 0.7%. In dollar terms, this category is one of the largest for our district and is responsible for over a billion dollars of exports per month—a portion of that produced here in the Quad Cities.
Exports of metals have also increased compared to last year. Exports of articles of iron or steel were up 17% and aluminum articles were more than double last year’s levels (January and February Chicago district exports)
The Context:
One important caveat for this data is that it is not adjusted for inflation. Therefore, some of the increase in value from 2025 to 2026 is due to higher prices. This is more of an issue for the metals and machinery exports. Commodity price movements have been small relative to the changes in value noted above, so those gains are still large in inflation-adjusted terms.
Overall, at the national level, exports have grown slowly but steadily since the announcement of tariffs last April. Imports, which surged in early 2025 ahead of the tariffs, have returned to levels comparable to 2024. Thus, it is export growth, not an import decline, that has led to the shrinking trade deficit. The big question now is how the increase in oil prices will affect these numbers. Data for March, which will be the first since the military action in Iran, will be out in early May.
Next week: U.S. Gross Domestic Product
