Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators
The Headline:
The U.S. International Trade Administration recently released data on exports by metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 2024. Of the 390 MSAs ranked, the Quad Cities (Henry (IL), Mercer (IL), Rock Island (IL), and Scott (IA) Counties) had the 66th highest total value of exports, approximately $5.1 billion. This was down from $6.1 billion in 2023. Among metro areas with less than 500,000 population, the Quad Cities ranked 12th.
Exports per capita (using 2024 census population estimates) for the Quad Cities metro area were approximately $13,000, which was more than double the overall U.S. exports per capita of approximately $6,000. This ranks the Quad Cities’ exports per capita 25th over all U.S. metro areas.
The Details:
The top-5 export sectors for the Quad Cities were (3-digit NAICS codes in parentheses):
- Machinery (333)
- Transportation equipment (336)
- Primary metal manufactures (331)
- Fabricated metal products (332)
- Processed foods (311)
Sectors in bold were those for which the Quad Cities was ranked in the top-50 MSAs overall. In addition, Fish and other marine products (114), Beverages and tobacco products (312), and Leather and allied products (316) were also sectors for which the Quad Cities MSA was ranked in the top-50.
Over the last 20 years, exports in the Quad Cities have been trending higher—nearly doubling on average over that time. However, exports are extremely variable, not only over the business cycle, but also in response to international conditions. In particular, exports respond positively to a weaker U.S. dollar because dollar weakness makes U.S. products less expensive to foreign customers.
The Context:
While exports from the Quad Cities compare very favorably with our peer cities across the country, they have decreased over the last couple of years. Exports from the metro area peaked most recently in 2012, 2018, and 2022. At the most recent peak in 2022, exports from the Quad Cities reached $8.2 billion. Each of the previous three peaks in exports was associated with a decline in the nominal broad dollar index (a weighted measure of the dollar’s value relative to a variety of currencies) of around 10%. Last year, the index fell by more than 7% in the first half of the year, then rose slightly in the second half. However, in the first few weeks of 2026, the index has decreased by about another percentage point. Hence, we would expect that there was some improvement in exports in 2025 and that this improvement could continue in 2026 provided the dollar does not return to its previous high levels reached in late 2024 and early 2025.
Interest rates are also related to the dollar and therefore to export levels as well. When U.S. interest rates are higher relative to those in other countries, it tends to strengthen the dollar. The fact that the Fed kept their policy rate higher for longer than expected in 2024 helped to push the dollar to its highest level in decades by late 2024. That is good for those buying foreign goods or traveling overseas, but it makes U.S. exports less competitive. However, those high levels were ultimately not sustainable, and the process is starting to reverse itself. As the market is now starting to price in lower rates in the second half of 2026 once President Trump appoints a new Federal Reserve Chair, the dollar is already moving lower in anticipation. Look for additional discussion of the dollar’s effect on the Quad Cities economy in our Quarterly Market Report next month.
Next week: State GDP and Personal Income 3rd Quarter 2025
