Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

The Headlines:

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released labor market data for metropolitan areas for October and November. Before seasonal adjustment, nonfarm payroll employment in the Quad Cities metro area increased by 1,300 in October and increased by 200 in November. After seasonal adjustment, the increase was 200 in each month. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the Quad Cities fell each month from April through August but has now increased in each of the last three months.

As was the case in the national data, there was not a report on the size of the labor force or the unemployment rate for October as the survey was not done during the federal government shutdown. The unemployment rate for the Quad Cities (not seasonally adjusted) was 4.5% in November. This was the lowest unemployment rate since May 2025 and 0.2% lower than November 2024. Both the number of unemployed and the number in the labor force decreased.

The Details:

Most sectors of the local labor market were little changed in October and November. Mining, logging and construction jobs were up by 100 in those two months. While this is a small number, it is the first time since 2016 that jobs in that category were up in October and November combined. Trade, transportation, and utilities jobs were up by 600 over the two month period, which is similar to the usual seasonal pattern. Private education and health service jobs were also up by 600 and are on pace to show a gain for the entire calendar year. Leisure and hospitality jobs decreased by 300 and are now down 2,200 from the post-COVID peak in 2023.

The Context:

With one more month of data to round out 2025, a picture is emerging. The Quad Cities has experienced a series of employment declines that have rolled from one sector to another over the last two years. Manufacturing was the first to be affected, followed by trade, transportation, and utilities, then affecting leisure and hospitality and others. Construction and health care have stood out as bright spots in this labor market with significant gains over the last two years. With manufacturing holding steady in the second half of 2025, the local labor market could improve in 2026—provided we see economic conditions at the national level that are conducive to growth in manufacturing and agriculture.

Next week: International update