Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

The Headlines:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that nonfarm payroll employment in the U.S. increased by 50,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted) in December, which was both lower than average and slightly lower than expectations. October and November jobs were revised downward by a combined 76,000. The report also estimated that private sector employment increased by 37,000, which was very close to the estimate released earlier in the week in the ADP National Employment Report which estimated that private sector employment increased by 41,000.

The BLS household survey showed a slight decrease in the labor force in December although it was up about 1.8% for the year. The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged, moving down by 0.1% to 4.4% in December.

The Details:

Nationally, job growth continues to be concentrated in a small number of industries with large segments of the economy experiencing flat or negative growth. As has been the case for most of 2025, health care and social assistance (+38,500), as well as leisure and hospitality (+47,000), were the areas of the highest growth.

Public sector employment varied across the different levels of government with federal government employment essentially unchanged (+2,000), state government down slightly (-7,000) and local government up slightly (+18,000).

Construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and professional and business services were the categories experiencing the largest number of job losses. The decline in retail trade was mostly due to seasonal adjustment for warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers which were essentially unchanged before seasonal adjustment. However, because this sector normally sees a significant increase in employment during the holiday season, it resulted in a seasonally adjusted decline of 19,400 jobs.

Recent local employment numbers for the Quad Cities metro area are expected to be released on Friday, January 16. This will be the first release of local data since the federal government shutdown.

The Context:

December job growth was a continuation of the weak numbers over the last several months; however, the reaction of financial markets was muted. The better numbers on the household survey and the fact that unemployment is not increasing provided some reassurance. Even so, total job growth for 2025 was the worst for a non-recession year since 2003. The unusual situation in which GDP growth is strong, but job growth is weak looks like it will continue into 2026.

Next week: Local employment update