Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

The Headlines:

Last week brought a flurry of data updates as the federal government continues to catch up on releasing the backlog of data that was delayed by the lapse in funding. Among the data points are September U.S. retail and food service sales which were essentially unchanged for the month but were up 4.5% for the third quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago.

The Census Bureau also reported that U.S. manufacturing sales were up slightly (0.2% with a margin of error of 0.1%) in August compared to July, and up 4.4% (0.3% margin of error) compared to August of last year. Inventories were unchanged for the month of August and up 1.1% (margin of error of 0.3%) over the preceding 12 months.

Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods were up 0.5% in September compared to August, the smallest absolute percentage change since January as the last several months have been marked by extreme positive and negative movements due to tariffs.

Finally, the State Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (State JOLTS) for August showed little change for Iowa and an increase in job openings for Illinois. Only two states, Illinois and Florida, had significant increases in job openings in August (both 0.6% increase). The rest of the states were either down significantly or essentially unchanged. The rate of hiring and layoffs were essentially unchanged for both Iowa and Illinois, while the quit rate was down 0.4% in Iowa.

The Context:

All of this data should have been released during October while the government was shut down. It will take several more weeks to get completely caught up with the usual schedule. While this data goes back to the summer months when tariff uncertainty was at its peak, it is reassuring that during that time the economy was holding its own.  

In fact, taken together, this data paints a picture of an economy that was performing better than many would have expected given the tariff uncertainty. At least as of August, there was little reason to expect a significant downturn in the near future.

The labor market still presents a puzzle, however. As we mentioned last week, one of the common phrases in the labor market now is “no-hire, no-fire.” The JOLTS data for the states definitely bears that out. Even so, Iowa and Illinois are faring better than most states with the significant upturn in job openings in Illinois. We will carefully watch to see if this carries through to hiring activity in the next few months.

Another statistic worth watching is new orders for durable goods. Orders surged in March before the tariffs, collapsed in April when the tariffs were announced, and rebounded in May. It now looks as if those oscillations are starting to dampen as firms adjust to the new tariff levels. It is likely, however, that the overall slight increase in activity hides larger increases and decreases in different sectors. This also bears watching in the months ahead.

Next week: Looking ahead to 2026