Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

The Headlines:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently reported that total nonfarm payroll employment in the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL metropolitan area decreased by 500 in August to 178,900 from a revised 179,400 in July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Jobs in the metro area were unchanged before seasonal adjustment from a revised 179,100 in July. Seasonally unadjusted jobs in the metro area in August were down 2,900 from August 2024. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rates for counties in the metro area ranged from 4.8% to 5.4%. Most counties in the metro area saw their unemployment rate increase slightly from July, except for Henry County where the rate was unchanged.

At the national level, private employment was down by 32,000 jobs in September according to the ADP Employment Report. This follows a decrease of 3,000 in August. Because of the federal government shutdown, the BLS labor report that is usually scheduled for the first Friday of the month was not available last Friday.

The Details:

In the Quad Cities, most categories of jobs were stable in August, remaining within 200 of July totals. The exception was local government education which increased by 500. This category saw a large seasonal drop in July. Depending on the start date for teachers hired for the new school year, those jobs return to the data in either August or September. Thus we should expect another 2,000 or more jobs to return to the data in September. Manufacturing employment decreased by 200 in August and is down by 700 since August 2024.

The increase in unemployment rates locally is in line with seasonal fluctuations. The BLS does not seasonally adjust metro area unemployment rates.

The Context:

The labor market slowdown is occurring, but the changes are taking place very slowly and unevenly across the country and across industries. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the slowing labor market in a recent speech, noting that “near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation.” However, with September job numbers delayed, the Fed’s decision just got more difficult. Most analysts still believe that two more interest rate cuts are on the way before the end of the year.

Next week: International update