Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

One of the most important economic questions currently facing the nation concerns the health of the labor market. The monthly job numbers and the unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are perhaps the most closely watched statistics related to the labor market. However, payroll jobs and the unemployment rate tend to be lagging indicators. As important as these indicators are, using them to guide economic policy is like trying to drive while only looking in the rear-view mirror.

Another labor market report that garners headlines but is a favorite of people who study the labor market is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Looking at the rates of hires, job openings, layoffs, and quits gives more insight into where the market is going. Here, we will focus on job openings as they are more forward-looking, and local data is available.

At the national level, job openings have been slowly decreasing from the abnormally high levels of 2021 and 2022. As the country went back to work after the pandemic, openings were nearly double their pre-pandemic levels. As of this summer, openings are back to 2019 levels—still much higher than in 2016 when the economy slowed considerably but avoided a recession.

In Illinois, the seasonally adjusted rate of job openings (openings as a percentage of employed plus openings) was 4.4% in June—about where it has been for most of this year and down from 4.9% last June. However, in 2016, the rate of openings fell as low as 3.3% as the economy slowed. The story is the same in Iowa, where the rate was 4.0% in June, tied for the lowest monthly rate this year, but still above the lowest level of the last 10 years (3.1% in June 2015).

While the BLS does not publish JOLTS data for individual counties or metro areas, private-sector estimates are available for job openings. We obtain job openings and other local labor market data for the Quad Cities from Lightcast, a labor market analytics company. Lightcast monitors major job posting websites, taking steps to adjust for duplicate postings, to arrive at a measure of job openings. Local data has tended to move similarly to the national data.

Job openings for the six-county Davenport-Moline, IA-IL Combined Statistical Area this August were 4,741 according to Lightcast with 1,491 firms posting jobs and a median duration of postings of 21 days. Since this data is not seasonally adjusted, it is better to compare this to the same month in previous years. In August 2024, there were 5,171 openings at 1,560 firms with a median duration of 15 days. Both August 2024 and 2025 were down significantly from the same month in 2023 when there were 6,886 openings at 2,114 firms and a median duration of 17 days.

Comparing job openings from online sources a decade ago may not be as accurate since fewer companies were utilizing online job boards at that time. However, we can infer from national and state data that local job openings in 2015-2016 were also considerably lower than they are now.

Finally, note that these are aggregates. Considerable differences exist across industries. For example, openings in health care have remained stable over the last two years while openings in manufacturing have decreased.

Next week: Federal Reserve interest rate decision