Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

The Headlines:

Total nonfarm payroll employment in the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL metropolitan area increased by 200 from a revised 181,500 in February to 181,700 in March on a seasonally adjusted basis according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 3-month average growth was about 0.4% or 400 jobs (seasonally adjusted). The 3-month average change has been positive for the first three months of 2025 after spending nearly all of 2024 in negative territory. Nonfarm payroll employment was unchanged on a seasonally unadjusted basis.

The Details:

Employment in most sectors of the local economy were essentially unchanged in March. The category of mining, logging, and construction (locally, this is nearly all construction) was up 400 jobs to 10,100 (seasonally unadjusted). This is down from 10,900 jobs in March 2024, but was the second highest number of construction jobs in March over the last decade.

Manufacturing jobs, which had been mostly steady in the first half of 2024, fell slowly but steadily in the second half of the year. Since the start of 2025, manufacturing jobs appear to have stabilized at just over 23,000, down about 1,000 since the same time last year.

The Context:

Normally, we see a seasonal upswing in the labor market in the spring as construction gets underway and the tourism season begins. The flattening trajectory of the local labor market would suggest that things are slower than a year ago, and slower than a typical spring. Even so, the positive 3-month average job growth would suggest some improvement since the end of 2024. Thus, as we move further into 2025, the year-over-year comparisons will begin looking a little better as we start to show clear signs of bouncing back from the layoffs that affected the local economy last summer and fall. Yet, there remains a significant amount of slack in the labor market as total labor force and employment numbers remain below recent averages.

There are a few indicators that are worth watching as the year progresses. First of all, will sectors like construction and hospitality (tourism) start to accelerate? If so, that could push economic activity closer to last year’s levels. Second, will the weakening dollar help export manufacturers and revitalize hiring? We will take a closer look at the dollar next week.

Next week: International update