Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

The Headlines:

Total nonfarm payroll employment in the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL metropolitan area increased by 300 to 181,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis in February according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This follows an increase of 700 jobs in January. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment has now increased in three of the last four months, and this represents the best back-to-back monthly gains since August and September of 2023.

The Details:

The largest monthly gains in January were in local government (500 in local government education, 300 other local government), and health care and social assistance (300). Manufacturing, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality were each up 200 jobs for the month of January.

The Context:

The unemployment rate and total labor force for the metro area were not available for February at the time of this writing. While the January unemployment rate in the Quad Cities stood at 5.4% (not seasonally adjusted), the highest level since 2021, there was some good news in the labor force data. The Quad Cities labor force rose to just over 187,700 in January (not seasonally adjusted). The significance of this number is that it went against the seasonal trend of flat to lower labor force numbers in January. This was the highest January labor force reading since the COVID-19 recession. Higher labor force numbers can temporarily push the unemployment rate higher as workers entering or re-entering the labor force look for jobs.

The increase in the labor force is encouraging, although it will be a couple more months before we will be able to tell if this truly is the reversal of the recent downward trend. If this continues, it would be a good sign that the local labor market is functioning smoothly and that people are able to find jobs after a period of layoff or being out of the labor force.

National job numbers for March will be released this Friday, and that will also help fill out the overall picture. Expectations for March payroll numbers are that they will be down somewhat from February’s gain of 151,000 jobs, but still close to the long-run average. Markets have been contending with weakening consumer sentiment, tariff worries, and talk of renewed inflation. Consequently, Friday’s payroll jobs report will be closely watched for any sign of weakness.

Next week: National labor market update