Weekly Economic Trends and Indicators

The Headlines:

According to the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. trade deficit increased from $73.6 billion in October (revised) to $78.2 billion in November. This is an increase of 6.2%. The monthly trade deficit has been trending upward since August 2023. Exports were up 2.7% in November while imports were up 3.4%.

Local Statistics:

The International Trade Administration (ITA) recently released trade statistics for individual metropolitan areas for 2023. The Davenport-Moline-Rock Island IA-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) exported approximately $6.1 billion worth of goods in 2023. This is down from $8.2 billion in 2022. We ranked 57^th out of 387 MSAs, down from 47^th in 2022. For reference, the Quad Cities metro area is the 148^th largest by population, so we rank much higher than would be expected based on population alone.

As was the case in 2022, machinery (3-digit NAICS code 333) accounted for more than half of the Quad Cities’ exports ($3.7 billion). The ITA does not release export amounts in certain industries in some areas to protect confidentiality. However, of those areas where machinery exports are reported, the Quad Cities was in the top 10, just below Minneapolis-St. Paul ($3.8 billion).

Other industries in which the Quad Cities ranked in the top 50 metro areas for exports were the following:

• Fish and other marine products (3-digit NAICS code 114)
• Beverage and tobacco products (3-digit NAICS code 312)
• Leather and allied products (3-digit NAICS code 316)
• Primary metal manufacturers (3-digit NAICS code 331)
• Fabricated metal products (3-digit NAICS code 332)

The Context:

Export growth was essentially flat in 2023 in contrast with the robust post-COVID growth of 2022. The top five exporting metro areas each experienced decreases in exports while many smaller areas held steady or increased slightly. As the agricultural sector is vital to the Quad Cities area, our decrease in exports can partly be attributed to the slowing agricultural economy.

Exports depend on many factors, including domestic and foreign interest rates, currency values, and inflation. These statistics can be quite volatile. Over the last decade, exports from the Quad Cities have ranged from $4.5 billion in 2016 to a peak of $8.2 billion in 2022. When all the data is in for 2024, it will likely be essentially flat once again. However, since agriculture was one of the weaker sectors in 2024, Quad Cities exports may again be lower than in 2023.

Next week: Financial market update